Nigeria’s petroleum refining industry could receive a major boost in 2027 as seven modular refineries prepare to begin operations with a combined capacity of 83,000 barrels per day.
George Maher-Bonnett of Argus Media disclosed the projection during a presentation at the OTL Africa Downstream conference in Lagos on Wednesday, October 28. He discussed changes in Nigeria’s petroleum products market, including rising domestic production and shifting fuel demand.
According to his presentation, four modular refineries operated in Nigeria as of September 2026. Together, these facilities had a combined processing capacity of 32,000 barrels per day.
The seven additional facilities could more than double the country’s existing modular refining capacity if they commence operations as projected.
Seven Modular Refineries Could Add 83,000 Barrels Daily
The proposed projects represent a significant development for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. Their combined capacity of 83,000 barrels per day exceeds the existing 32,000 barrels recorded across the four operating modular refineries.
If all seven facilities become operational, Nigeria’s total modular refining capacity could reach approximately 115,000 barrels per day.
However, Maher-Bonnett’s presentation did not identify the seven proposed refineries, their owners or locations. It also provided no individual capacity breakdown or specific commissioning dates.
The projected expansion comes as Nigeria seeks to strengthen local petroleum production and reduce its dependence on imported refined products. Smaller refineries could complement larger facilities by increasing domestic processing capacity and supporting petroleum supply across different regions.
Dangote Refinery Drives Changes in Nigeria’s Oil Market
The presentation also highlighted the growing contribution of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to Nigeria’s refining industry.
Maher-Bonnett noted that the 700,000-barrel-per-day facility in Lekki, Lagos, was operating at a high rate, with steady petrol production. Its increasing output has supported Nigeria’s drive towards greater self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.
However, Nigeria’s fuel demand has declined in 2026. The presentation attributed the reduction partly to higher petrol prices, which have affected consumption.
The analyst also noted that increased domestic production was changing petroleum products trade across West Africa. Higher local output has reduced the commercial attractiveness of importing some refined products from Europe.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s 45,000-barrel-per-day Tema refinery is increasing production, further strengthening regional refining capacity.
The expected arrival of seven modular refineries could reshape Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market in 2027. However, their actual impact will depend on project completion, crude oil availability and sustained commercial production.
If the facilities meet their projected timelines, they could strengthen domestic supply and increase Nigeria’s role in West Africa’s petroleum market.
